In 2011, the auto market still increased by 20%

In 2011, the growth rate of automobile production and sales exceeded 20%

Wang Jian, deputy director of the Research and Research Department of China Automotive News, under the premise that the country’s macroeconomic situation does not experience a significant decline, the 2011 automobile production and sales volume exceeding 20 million vehicles is by no means a problem and is expected to be between 21 million and 22 million vehicles. The increase was between 20% and 25%.

1. Although the control of inflation will be the focus of work in 2011, it will continue to implement aggressive fiscal policies and sound monetary policies next year. The inflation rate does not drop significantly. This will promote the consumption of passenger cars in 2011.

2. Pulling domestic demand will be another focus of work in 2011. As an upstream industry that promotes terminal consumption, the transportation industry and logistics industry will also be greatly developed next year, which will drive demand for passenger cars and trucks.

3. In 2010, a large number of flood disasters caused a large number of flood prevention projects and infrastructures to be damaged. They must be repaired before the flood season in 2011 and will drive demand for heavy trucks and special vehicles in the first quarter of next year.

4. The central government clearly stated that it is necessary to “proactively and steadily promote urbanization and speed up the construction of a new socialist countryside” in the next five years, which will inevitably bring about a large amount of infrastructure construction. This will drive demand for trucks and mini vehicles in 2011.

5. In the past two years, automobile manufacturers have stepped up their deployment efforts in the county and township market, and have basically taken shape. In 2010, at least 20% of sales growth in most companies came from these markets, and it is expected that these sinking channels will tap more customers next year.

However, there are two factors that may significantly affect car consumption next year, which also requires special attention.

1, the international economic environment. The first is whether the debt crisis that broke out in Greece and Ireland this year has the potential to spread. Second, the series of economic stimulus measures introduced by the Obama administration in early 2009 will expire next year. The current results are not significant, and the international judgment on the US economy's second bottom has not stopped. If the effect of these two factors is to have an additive effect next year, it may trigger a new round of crisis or panic on a global scale. This may cause domestic consumers to tighten their wallets as in the second half of 2008, leading to a decline in the auto market.

2. Beijing Municipality has explicitly decided to implement a “blocking blockade” plan. Taking into account the demonstration effect of the capital, it is expected that other large and medium-sized cities will also issue similar plans in the next two years. If there are clear restrictions on purchases in the Beijing plan, it will definitely be adopted by other city governments. This will lead to a wave of large-scale buying in 2011, just as the Beijing market since November may lead to a 40% increase in the consumption of passenger cars.

Fast-growing rigid demand will still dominate Zhang Yidong’s “Economic Observer” automobile editor-in-chief of the 2011 auto market is in dispute. It will still be a bull market, even if it is not a big bull market this year, it will be a middle bull; restrictions in Beijing and other places will allow the auto market to face "countermeasures", but the rigid demand for rapid growth will still dominate; consumption structure adjustment will accelerate .

Consumer decision market 2010 Auto market will continue to fire Shuai Yong Chief editor of Nanjing Daily’s auto weekly magazine. From my Nanjing office, the average number of licenses per day in 2009 is about 500 vehicles; now this figure is 1,000 vehicles. The auto market continues to fire in 2010; I don't think the auto market will experience a major crisis. As cities grow larger, the process of urbanization is still a government development strategy, and consumption determines the market.

There is no pessimistic reason for the auto market next year. Wu Yingqiu’s chief commentator on “China’s auto market” has no change in the overall economic situation. Purchasing power will not change. GDP will continue to grow by more than 9% next year, which will allow the auto market to have good protection. This year's auto market growth is around 40%, which is a super-high speed. This is not realistic every year. If there is a 20 percent increase next year, it will definitely be the world's number one. Next year, the auto market has no reason to be pessimistic.

The policy has a short-term impact on whether the purchase will still buy Zhang Jiu. “Automotive Economics” Editor-in-Chief The 2011 auto market will still be “left and right” by the policy, such as the issue of subsidies, purchase restrictions, etc., but rigid demand is still indispensable. Even if the small displacement is not subsidized, it can only be a short-term psychological impact. It will be bought soon. For example, the policy of restricting purchases, whether Beijing or Nanjing, will never be implemented easily. On the contrary, it may promote advance consumption.

The growth of car sales will tend to be stable. Li Geng, editor-in-chief of “Sedan Intelligence”, will pay more attention to quality competition in the Chinese auto market in 2011, and prices will become more reasonable. Domestic electric vehicles are blooming all over the place and need to be regulated. Imported electric vehicles are gradually testing the Chinese market. The growth of car sales will tend to be stable.

To buy a car and do not care about the cost of promotion Konghui Zhao Xinyi online auto channel chief editor China's auto market in 2011 will continue to maintain no less than 20% growth rate, although the first-tier cities limit blocking voices are increasingly high, the cost of car The increase should be unavoidable, but it cannot stop the steady increase in sales in the auto market. Because China's thousands of people have no more than 45 units, there are too many consumers who have not completed their first car purchases. At the same time, the overall increase in consumption patterns has made the people who really buy cars not fully care about the cost of the upgrade. At the same time, sales volume in the second and third-tier cities will increase substantially, but the total volume will remain small.

The driving force of the auto market shifts from intermediate to high-level Mo Yan breeze Senior automotive analyst 2011 The slowdown in the auto market is inevitable. First, the rigid demand for automobiles needs to be adjusted after two years of full release; Second, the rapid development of automobiles does not match with traffic and energy demand. Need to adjust to guide healthy development. In 2011, the following A-level markets were affected to a greater extent, and the B-level and C-level markets will continue to maintain a relatively high growth rate. In 2011, the driving force of the auto market will shift from middle-level to middle-level and high-level.