Survey: China's Auto Power Road is still "difficult" in the next decade

Core tips:

Most viewpoints are not optimistic that the Chinese auto industry can truly realize the dream of becoming a powerful nation in the next decade. The relative optimists have extended this period of time to 15 years and believe that there are still 20 years or more.

The past decade, with its 2010 timeline, is the prime time for the Chinese auto market. In this decade, not only did new car sales exceed the highest historical record in the U.S. market, but also a number of aggressive local brands emerged. The R&D technology for key components also achieved certain achievements.

However, judging from the current situation, in the next decade, the Chinese auto industry, especially the national independent brand, will still find it difficult to obtain a qualitative improvement with the growth of the market size. The transition from large to strong is still difficult.

From April 6th to 13th, Gasgoo.com and the "First Financial Daily" launched a one-week industry survey on "Exploring the Road to China's Auto Power." The results show that of the 3,218 person-to-person polls received, only 23% are optimistic about the shift from a big auto country to a car power in the next ten years. It is directly believed that 42% of people in China have difficulty in achieving this change. A wait-and-see stance indicates that if China can become a powerful automobile country in 2020, it is still “not easy to say” and it also accounts for 35%.

In an offline survey interview, the Gasgoo Institute of Expert Advisors predicated on the road to China’s automobile powers, the majority view is not optimistic that the Chinese auto industry can be truly realized in the next decade, and relative optimists will take this time. For 15 years, it is thought that there are still 20 years or more.

When will own brands dominate?

The growth rate of self-owned brands has become the main reference for the market level. In the survey, there are also people who account for a relatively large percentage of the market, and whether or not the self-owned brand occupies the dominant position in the market is regarded as one of the characteristics of China becoming a car power.

At present, a group of independent brands represented by Chery, Geely, and BYD, which have rapidly grown over the past decade, have achieved a definite market status despite their respective business models. However, compared to foreign brands, they are in the eyes of consumers. Image, self-owned brand has always stayed in the low-end market, while the market share is expanding very slowly. According to the sales data of 20 self-owned brand cars produced by Gasgoo.com, the number of self-owned brand cars in China in 2010 totaled 293.09 million, an increase of 34.08% year-on-year.

However, such rapid market growth did not bring about a rapid increase in market share. The proportion of self-owned brands in the total sales of cars increased by only 1.3% from 30.7% in 2009 to 30.7% in 2007 and 2008. This figure is 26.5% and 26% respectively.

In the period when foreign brands have also achieved significant growth with the development of the market, core competitiveness elements such as R&D technology and brand value are not dominant brands, and if they develop at such a pace, market share exceeding 50% will take a long period of time. Moreover, the market's surge in 2010, as the market tends to be saturated, will hardly repeat itself in the future.

The core technology is the deadly factor

For China to become a powerful automobile country, the proportion of its own brand market share is only one of the reference factors. The voting results showed that 32% of the core technology and the ownership of local talents are regarded as the typical characteristics that best represent the status of China’s auto power, and this is the most deadly factor that restricts the development of the Chinese auto industry.

The self-owned brands accounted for the leading position in the domestic market and ranked second with a voting rate of 19%. Secondly, the presence of a multinational giant in China appeared to be another typical characteristic of the status of a strong car. In addition, the proportion of exports, as well as a good consumer environment and a unique car culture, also received a voting rate of 14% and 17% respectively.

The Chinese Society of Automotive Engineers once conducted a systematic survey on the R&D capabilities of local companies in key components such as engines, transmissions, axles, brake systems, and steering in 2009, and the results are not optimistic. Among them, engine products only have the ability to develop local machine technology upgrades and variant products, but new platform development and machine concepts, fuel supply systems, electronic control systems need to rely on foreign or direct imports; with a certain manual mechanical transmission Product development capabilities, but automatic transmissions also rely mainly on imports; in steering products, mechanical steering and power steering products are relatively mature, but electric power steering systems are still blank; in brake system products, pneumatic and hydraulic braking systems are autonomous Development is dominant, but the electronic brake products represented by ABS and ESP are far from the foreign standards; in axle products, the drive axle assembly can be developed independently, but the final reducer assembly and differential assembly The development is still 20% of companies choose to import from abroad. Therefore, judging from these dimensional analysis, the gap between China's auto industry and foreign countries in the mastery of core technologies is still quite large.

Can export cars be recognized

It is worth mentioning that the large-scale export of the automotive industry is an important symbol of the automotive giants and even the automotive powers, but China has not achieved an effective breakthrough in this regard.

According to the automobile export data published by the China Chamber of Commerce and Industry, it has exported a total of 156,700 units of complete vehicles (including complete sets of spare parts) and various types of chassis in 2010, which only accounted for 3% of the total vehicle sales, with Germany, About 40% of Japan's car-powerful countries, such as automobile output, are used for export, and the gap is huge. Moreover, among the existing export products, Chinese autos have largely succeeded in opening overseas markets through low-cost strategies, and they are mainly concentrated in South America, the Middle East, and other regions. This is likely to become the future export product structure. The transformation and upgrading of the constraints. According to industry insiders, only consumers in Europe and the United States can truly recognize China’s auto industry in order to show that China has indeed embarked on the road to auto power.

The government's driving force is indispensable

In the period when it is difficult for enterprises to rely on their own strength to achieve greater breakthroughs, China must transform itself into a powerful automobile country and the government's driving force is indispensable. The major aspects listed in the survey have also been recognized by some people in the industry.

According to the results of the specific polls, “upgrading the competitiveness of parts and components industry” appears to be an area that the government should focus on promoting in 24% of the people. As a large industry, the sales revenue of the auto parts industry accounts for at least 40% of the vehicle sales revenue, which is the cornerstone of the development of the auto industry. However, from the results of feedback from various parties at this stage, it is unlikely that there will be an international component giant in China within a short period of time. Therefore, government support and policy promotion are particularly critical before the entire component industry has produced a cluster effect. "Industry resource integration" obtained 22% of the voting rate and came in second place. It can be seen that the industry does not completely reject the use of government administrative measures to promote industry mergers and reorganization. This may help to shorten the process of industry consolidation to some extent.

Promoting the "industrialization of new energy vehicles" achieved a 17% turnout rate. However, there are also opposing views that excessive intervention by administrative forces will weaken the market vitality of new energy vehicles, and that “supporting the development” will easily cause a bubble in the new energy auto industry.

At present, China's auto consumption market, which is currently in the gap between relevant laws and regulations and the transitional period, should be effectively improved as soon as possible. The promotion of policies cannot be ignored nor even urgent. In the survey, 15% of the people advocated the adoption of policies to "improve the automobile consumption environment." Although China has become the world’s largest consumer of new cars, compared with mature markets, China’s various consumer rights protection measures for automobiles are relatively weak both at the policy-making level and at the current level of policy implementation. In addition, "Improving Fuel Economy and Reducing Emissions" and "regulating the after-sales market" also received a 11% turnout.

In the early stage of industrial transformation, especially for a special market sample like China, the introduction of the most proactive policies will accelerate the pace of this transformation to some extent. Of course, policy intervention in industrial development often has a double-edged effect, and targeted intervention is extremely important.